Potential Tropical Storm Nadine Spaghetti Models as Chances Strengthen

A system in the Caribbean Sea has a moderate chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Nadine by this weekend, and most forecasts show the storm moving in the opposite direction from Florida.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has monitored several systems of interest this week, although the system in the Atlantic Ocean known as AL94, which previously showed chances of becoming Tropical Storm Nadine, is now less likely to strengthen into a named storm.
However, the system in the northwestern Caribbean known as AL95 is showing increasing chances that it could become the next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season by this weekend.
Concern about tropical activity heightened in the U.S. last week as people feared another tropical storm could take aim at Florida shortly after back-to-back hurricanes Milton and Helene ravaged the Sunshine State. However, most spaghetti models—computer models illustrating potential storm paths—anticipate that AL95 will cut west across Central America or Mexico.
One model shows the storm curving northeast toward Florida. However, WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli previously told Newsweek that a cold front in the Sunshine State would temporarily protect the state from tropical storm activity.
Another model shows the storm heading north toward Texas, which is also unlikely given disruptive winds off the Texas coast this time of year.
Most models anticipate that if Nadine does form, it will remain a tropical storm or, at most, a Category 1 hurricane.
When reached for comment, an NHC spokesperson shared the following update with Newsweek:
“Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.”
“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend,” the update continued. “It has a medium (50 percent) chance of formation in the next 48 hours and in the next 7 days.”
Over the past week, chances of a storm forming soon have increased. Meteorologists have been eyeing the region for development since earlier this month.
The system in the Atlantic Ocean, known as AL94, is expected to be torn apart by strong upper-level winds this weekend. Regardless of development, AL94 could bring rain and wind to northern Caribbean islands.